Albania
In-depth country-focused analysis on Albania's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Albania's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Albania, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Albania's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Albania before your competitors.

Country Risk

Albania Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Albania's economic recovery will remain sluggish in 2014, hindered by anaemic consumer spending and the government's deteriorating fiscal position. We forecast Albania's economy to grow by 2.5% in 2014.

  • The current account deficit will continue shrinking in 2014, with exports set to benefit from recovering external demand and imports restricted by weak consumer and corporate spending.

  • Weak domestic demand will ensure that inflationary pressures remain subdued over the coming quarters. With low bank lending also stifling Albania's economic recovery, we expect the Bank of Albania (BoA) to continue its rate cutting cycle in 2014, lowering rates by 50 basis points to 2.50% by year-end.

  • Although it is looking increasingly likely that Albania will be granted EU candidate status in June 2014, full...

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Albania Industry Coverage (1)

Telecommunications

Albania Telecommunications

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BMI View: Owing to the laggardly pace of regulatory reform, Albania is one of Europe's most challenging telecommunications markets from an investment perspective. Although there are numerous alternative operators challenging the incumbent in both the mobile and wireline sectors, price-led competition hampers their ability to develop advanced monetisable services. The mobile market suffers, in particular, from a surfeit of inactive subscriptions; efforts to eliminate these are causing highly variable growth trends, making it difficult to accurately gauge the market's size and trajectory. In the wireline arena, customers are migrating to cheap mobile services and, although the market is buoyed by demand for fixed broadband, the roll out of 3G mobile broadband poses downside risks to growth. Although the incumbent has developed a high-speed network and aims to leverage IPTV to exploit its potential, the sector remains unattractive on many...

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