Algeria
In-depth country-focused analysis on Algeria’s economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Algeria’s operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Algeria, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Algerian industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Algeria before your competitors.

Country Risk

Algeria Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • As a result of ongoing political violence, a significant degree of productive capacity (both physical and human) throughout the Libyan economy has been lost. Road, housing and utility infrastructure have suffered considerable damage and will take years to repair under even the most stable of political environments. Moreover, given the importance of the hydrocarbon industry, damage to oil production and refining infrastructure will pose significant long-term challenges.

  • Libya's political climate will remain volatile through 2015, as competing militias compete for control over the country's vast resource wealth.

  • A lack of institutional capacity will hamper reconstruction efforts. Libya lacks the institutions necessary to carry out much-needed investment projects.

  • Low oil prices, coupled with...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Algeria Industry Coverage (10)

Agribusiness

Algeria Agribusiness

BMI View:

BMI View: W ith wheat and dairy production consistently short of consumption, Algeria is a major importer of food products. However, the government's new emphasis on the improvement of food self-sufficiency is helping the grains and dairy sectors to rebound . Increases in government support will be positive for productivity and product quality in the medium term. However, the country will remain a key importer of wheat and dairy products in the coming years. Algeria is increasingly expanding trading links with countries such as Brazil and India, especially for dairy and beef products, and away from its traditional suppliers such as France...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Autos

Algeria Autos

BMI View:

Algerian new vehicle sales were down by 28% over H114, at just 180,277 units, according to figures cited by the local French language Motors Magazine. On current sales trends, this would imply a full-year sales figure around BMI's current forecast of 359,179 units. As such, we maintain our sales forecast this quarter, but would caution that downside risks remain, which we outline below.

One main reason behind the calamitous drop in sales is the fact that many Algerians have been looking to rent or buy houses via a national homebuilding scheme being carried out by the Housing Development and Improvement Agency (AADL) which has therefore accounted for most of their disposable income in 2014. Other factors weighing on the near-term outlook for automobile sales in Algeria include: rising congestion in major cities, a lack of parking spaces and the rising costs of owning and running a vehicle.

Looking...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Food & Drink

Algeria Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View:   We recently revised upwards our forecast s for economic growth in Algeria , and now expect to see nominal GDP growing at a compound annual rate of 10.9% between 2014 and 2018 (up from a previous forecast of 8.3%), as we are more positive about private consu mption , and expect to see strong growth across the food and drinks sector . W e continue to view inflation and political unrest as the biggest risks to consumption.

Headline Industry Data

  • ...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Infrastructure

Algeria Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View: The Algerian construction sector has performed well in 2013 and we see this trend to continue into 2014. After a change of the historical construction data by the Bank of Algeria, from -5.9% year - on - year [y-o-y] to 1.51% y-o-y in 2011, we have revised our outlook of the Algerian construction value to be in line with these modifications. Strong revenues from oil and gas resources and energy exports have allowed the Algerian government to assign US$286bn for investment in infrastructure in five years. Reasonable growth rates and rising oil prices, as well as a period of political stability, in relation to neighbouring countries, are helping to maintain Algeria's inflows of foreign investment. Over the 10-year forecast period we expect average y-o...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Insurance

Algeria Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: The limited data that is available suggests that premiums are surging - or, more correctly, recovering from a low base in Libya. The overwhelmingly non-life market of Algeria has also achieved good growth through 2013. However, our overall view of insurance in the region is unchanged from previous years: North Africa remains a backwater. Sadly, this will likely be the case at the end of the forecast period .

To differing degrees, the markets of Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria are small, slowly growing, significantly constrained by the low levels of income for many households and dominated by sub-scale local insurers. Foreign companies are present but, except in Morocco, account for a fairly low percentage of activity. Life insurance, in particular, is underdeveloped. Major shareholders are often state-owned enterprises or conglomerates that have no clear...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Oil & Gas

Algeria Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: Despite Algeria's substantial hydrocarbons reserves, rapid production decline in the country's major producing fields weighs on its longer-term production outlook. Whilst new projects due online in the coming years will offer temporary support to production growth, we grow increasingly bearish towards the end of our 10-year forec ast period. The high prospectivity of Algeria's unconventional and offshore acreage could see this trend reversed, but a poor above-ground environment continues to drag on international investment.

...
Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Petrochemicals

Algeria Petrochemicals

BMI View:

BMI View: Algeria focuses on low added-value production, relying on commodity chemicals that are highly price- responsive to market fluctuations and easily undermined by capacity elsewhere in the world.

The industry is far from competing on equal terms with European petrochemicals producers with regard to product diversification. As such, it will be vulnerable to market fluctuations in the narrow range of products it produces, although the effects on margins should be cushioned by the local availability of competitively priced feedstock.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Algeria's petrochemicals market is likely to witness a steady improvement in growth in 2015. This is driven mainly by domestic demand and public investment activity....

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Algeria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View:   The  Algerian government 's   aspirations to rebalance the pharmaceutical trade deficit and promot e local generic produc tion , whilst enhancing the country's competitiveness by stimulating the innovative biopharmaceutical industry as a st rategic sector in the economy, will continue throughout Q414. A new memorandum of understanding between Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) and Algeria's government indicates...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Power

Algeria Power

BMI View:

BMI View: Despite Algerian government's efforts to spur the development of renewable energy in the country, conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation in the coming years, with many power projects under construction or planned that will use natural gas. We estimate 2013 total power generation in Algeria was 50.4TWh , having risen 3.8% on the 2012 level. We forecast an average 4.7% annual increase to 60.9TWh between 2012 and 2017. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow at a similar pace - by 4.7% per annum and is forecast to reach 60.3TWh during the period to 2017.

We forecast Algeria's power...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Telecommunications

Algeria Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View : The strong demand for mobile data services in the North Africa n telecoms markets is driving investments in network upgrade and expansion, with operators in Algeria, albeit from a low base, and Morocco leading the way in capital expenditure ( capex ) spending in 2014. The uptake of 3G network services in this region, aided by the increasing availability of low-cost smartphones, will allow mobile operators diversify their revenue streams away from basic services amid increased regulatory and competitive pressure. Libya is still left out of this development trend, with insecurity and political stability delaying a much - needed liberalisation process in the telecoms sector and...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login