Articles List

Articles List

Russia's 5G mobile technology hype: still very far from reality

In the race to be the first to plant the 5G mobile technology standard, telecoms companies risk misleading investors, governments and applications developers with regards to the challenges faced in developing a whole new standard. It is likely that 'real' 5G services will not be available until 2022/2023 at the earliest and that promises made in 2014 will have little relation to the final product.

Real Banking Sector Growth To Remain Muted

Argentina's commercial banking sector will see strong nominal growth over the coming quarters, largely due to elevated inflation. In real terms, growth in the banking sector will continue to stagnate, as a weak macroeconomic environment constricts credit demand, and low deposit rates make saving unattractive.

Banking Sector: Well Insulated From Lower Oil Prices

The UAE's banking sector is relatively well insulated from an era of lower oil prices and will continue to record high rates of growth over the coming years. The sector will benefit from our bullish outlook for the country's economy as well as continued government spending commitments. Overall, we forecast loan growth of 16.0% in 2014 and 13.0% in 2015, a notable uptick from 7.1% in 2013. Deposit inflows will continue apace, and we are projecting growth of 13.0% in 2014 and 10.4% in 2015, a slight improvement on the previous two years.

PNP Increasingly Vulnerable To 2016 Defeat

Slowing economic growth will continue to weigh on the popularity of Peruvian President Ollanta Humala in the coming months, leaving his centre-left Partido Nacionalista Peruano vulnerable to defeat in the 2016 presidential elections. The return of a centre-right government would see Peru's government continue to enact investor-friendly policies, and maintain a focus on developing the country's transport infrastructure.

Protracted Contraction As Economic Disparity Increases

The Syrian economy will continue to shrink over the next five years as a result of the protracted civil war. Economic activity will gradually stabilise within government-held regions, which will see a partial resumption in production and exports, and territory under rebel control, which will become increasingly impoverished.

Weaker Oil Prices Will Not Derail Growth

We maintain our bullish outlook on the UAE's economy even in an environment of weaker oil prices. The country has substantial fiscal buffers to shield growth from lower oil prices and construction projects will continue apace given their political expediency. Consumer and business sentiment remains positive, underlining our particularly upbeat views on household consumption and fixed investment over the coming quarters. Following real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2013, we are projecting the economy to expand by 3.9% in 2014 and 4.0% in 2015, with growth primarily coming from the non-oil sector.

Investment Opportunities Boost FDI, But Structural Weaknesses To Persist

The Guatemalan economy will benefit from new opportunities in the power, logistics and autos sectors in the years ahead, bolstering foreign direct investment. However, limited fiscal revenue growth, weak human development and high narcotrafficking-related violence will act as continued challenges, tempering our enthusiasm for the Central American economy.

Budget Deficit Will Gradually Narrow

A combination of accelerating economic growth and systemic underspending by government agencies will cut Kenya's fiscal deficit from 5.4% of GDP in 2014/2015 to 4.7% in 2017/2018. Development spending will rise, but remain far below the government's targets.

Infrastructure - Weekly Projects Roundup

This week has seen various contracts being awarded for transport, energy & utilities, and construction projects in Africa, Europe and Latin America.