Articles List

Articles List

Price Pressures For Biosimilars To Rise

Governments in Western Europe are to remain committed to fiscal consolidation and will continue to target the healthcare sector and the prescription drugs sector in particular - a large recipient of government funds. Therefore, despite calls made by regulatory bodies for the implementation of a system that adequately rewards innovation and supports investment in future medicines, including biologics, companies will face an increasingly tough pricing and reimbursement environment.

Construction Rebound Coming, But Unsustainable Long Term

Brazil's construction sector remains poised for a rebound over the next couple of years. Although we now expect Brazil construction sector to have entered a recession in 2014, the size of the project pipeline should precipitate a rebound in activity in 2015. Over the five- to ten-year time horizon however, we remain concerned over the sustainability of growth given the poor foundation for investment. Thus we are maintaining our outlook that a revival in growth over the next couple of years will be followed by a sharp slowdown.

Balance Of Payments Crisis Risks Rising

Falling oil prices, restricted access to Western capital and lack of reform are pushing Russia towards a balance of payments crisis. A near-term crisis will probably be averted as tensions with the West ease over the next few quarters, but the damage done to investor perceptions of Russian stability will be lasting.

Economic Headwinds To Weigh On Car Sales

Given our downbeat outlook on China's economy, we expect the slowdown seen in the passenger car segment to persist over the coming quarters. As such, we maintain our 2014 and 2015 passenger car sales growth forecast of 10.2% and 8.0% respectively, with luxury cars and SUVs remaining bright spots within the segment.

Regional Growth Will Increase Bottlenecks At Ports

Bottlenecks at major Latin American ports will increase in the medium term as the region is unprepared to deal with the increase in throughput - the result of strong population and private consumption growth which, in turn, will feed demand for imports.

Distributed Solar Upside Amid Grid Underdevelopment

Total's plan to develop solar photovoltaic projects in Nigeria, starting from 2015, for a total installed capacity of 1 GW confirms our expectations for solar to emerge as a key renewables technology in the country.

Disappointing Census Precedes 2015 Political Inflection Point

Myanmar's recent census returned a population figure that was nearly 10mn lower than the government's previous estimates, once again shedding light on the country's statistical shortcomings following decades of military rule. Still, the release of more granular demographic data in May 2015 will likely prove to be a more contentious point, and along with next year's general elections, we note that 2015 will be a major inflection point for Myanmar's ongoing political reform process.

Near-Term Upside For Latin American Energy Stocks

Positive investor sentiment towards Latin American equities, combined with a number of country- and sector-specific factors, will drive further share price gains for energy stocks including YPF, Petrobras and Ecopetrol in the coming weeks

Eyeing A Sector Revival

Faced with falling production, Brunei has unveiled an ambitious plan to expand both its upstream and downstream segment. While regional demand and an established industry will help support upstream investment, a small domestic market and fierce competition in the regional downstream space will dim its prospects in this segment.

Slower Economic Growth To Cap Rise In Oil Consumption

We expect a slowdown in Australia's oil consumption growth over 2014-2023 for the following reasons: slower economic growth led by the mining sector, slower vehicle sales growth and rising fuel efficiency.