Articles List

Articles List

Piecemeal Reforms To Prolong Economic Malaise

The re-election of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff on October 26 stymies Brazil's reform potential, and will result in only piecemeal economic and political reforms. As a result, economic activity will continue to stagnate in the coming years.

President's Position Untenable

President Blaise Compaoré's presidency is looking untenable in the face of continued opposition demonstrations, and we do not expect that he will remain in office. We expect that a transitional government will be installed, although there is risk of a military takeover in a country prone to coups. The events in Burkina Faso pose salient risk to other long-standing presidents in Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular those of neighbouring Togo and Benin.

Boston Beer Leading Craft Boom

We published an article in May 2014 examining why the mainstream US beer market outperforms the UK market in terms of profitability. We also observed how per capita beer consumption in the US has been on the decline for a number of years. This is driven by two key factors: an ongoing craft beer boom that has fuelled a growing indifference towards mainstream beer and strong growth momentum in spirits, particularly whisky, among young Americans.

BoJ Measures Bolster Bearish Case For Gold

Gold is under severe selling pressure and our already below-consensus price outlook may prove not bearish enough. A monthly close below USD1,180/oz, which represents the bottom of the 2013-2014 range, would be a very bearish signal and would open the door for declines down towards USD1,000/oz in the coming months, even sooner than we had expected (see 'Gold Heading To USD1,000/oz In 2015', October 6).

Rising Prominence Of Subcompact SUVs

Stricter fuel economy standards being implemented in key markets around the world will see automakers launching more subcompact SUVs in efforts to improve the fuel economy of their vehicle fleets, at the same time fueling demand for the segment. Meanwhile, turbocharger suppliers will benefit from an increase in application of the component in SUVs.

Only Strong Survive India's Mixed Outlook

The short-term outlook for the Indian market will remain weak for operators as a combination of increased price competition, changes in regulation and rising reserve spectrum prices weigh on profitability. Although the lifting of foreign ownership caps in July 2013 will help operators to gain access to capital, we believe that the industry will consolidate over the coming years, and only foreign investors with strong balance sheets and a long term commitment to India will enter the market.

Falling Oil Prices: The Final Nail In The Autos Coffin?

BMI View: Venezuela's deflated automotive production would face substantial downside risks if oil prices experience sustained declines over late 2014 and 2015. Lower oil prices would limit Venezuela's supply of hard currency, exacerbating the currency scarcity problems producers already face, and would also diminish demand for commercial vehicles through its effects on government spending.

New Agreement Will Stabilise The Generic Medicines Market

Canada's new Three-Year Pan-Canadian Agreement on the pricing of generic medicines will create a more stable generic drug market in the long term. Sharp decreases in prices will initially pose a challenge for generic drugmakers, but will ultimately make Canada's pharmaceutical market a more reliable and appealing investment.

President Gnassingbe To Resist Term Limit Reform And Win In 2015

BMI View: President Faure Gnassingbe of Togo will resist attempts to impose presidential term limits on his station, and will win his third presidential election in 2015. We expect that political tensions will increase as a result, in common with other West African countries looking for political change.

Pirity basin: Paraguay's historic gas discovery

President Energy's discovery of hydrocarbons in Paraguay's Pirity basin represents an historic development in the country's oil and gas sector, pending its commercial viability. The resources have the potential to increase Paraguay's production of oil and gas and reduce its heavy dependence on imported petroleum products.