Cote d`Ivoire
In-depth country-focused analysis on Cote d'Ivoire's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Cote d'Ivoire's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cote d'Ivoire, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cote d'Ivoire's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cote d'Ivoire before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cote d`Ivoire Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • We remain bullish on the growth prospects for the Ivorian economy, forecasting that real GDP growth will average 8.0% annually over the next five years. However, with contentious elections in October 2015 and the continued threat posed by Ebola, risks to growth over the near term are weighted firmly to the downside.

  • President Alassane Ouattara's already strong chances of securing a second term have increased following the announcement that the Parti Démocratiques de la Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI) - part of the ruling coalition with Ouattara's Rassemblement des Républicains (RDR)  - will back the president in the October 2015 general elections. 

  • Côte d'Ivoire's return to political stability in 2012 has had a restorative effect on the country's public finances and over the next five years we expect it to run a moderate, but sustainable fiscal...

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Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk

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BMI View : Côte d'Ivoire's increasingly investor-friendly business environment, resurgent economy and stable geopolitical situation make the country one of the most attractive investment propositions in sub-Saharan Africa at present. Nevertheless, concerns of the partiality of the judiciary, a largely unskilled labour pool and crumbling transport infrastructure mean that investors in the country must negotiate a number of obstacles in order to realise gains from Côte d'Ivoire's growing economic potential.   As a result Côte d'Ivoire receives a score of 34.3 out of 100 in the BMI Op erational Risk Index, ranking 24 thin Sub Saharan Africa.

Côte d'Ivoire is an attractive market for investors, as is evidenced by the...

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Cote d`Ivoire Crime & Security

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BMI View : Foreign business travellers, expatriates and tourists face pronounced Crime and Security Risks in Côte d'Ivoire. The most pressing threat to foreign businesses stems from the country's high crime rate, while the main terrorist risks emerge from groups which maintain allegiance to former President Laurent Gbagbo, though these groups are poorly organised and equipped. The country faces reduced risks from interstate conflict due to peaceful relations with neighbouring states. Overall, Côte d'Ivoire is a regional underperformer in the BMI Crime and Security Risk Index, with a score of 30.4 out of 100 and a rank of 32 out of 44 SSA states. 

Crime is widespread throughout Côte d'Ivoire. However, the commercial capital, Abidjan, is the most acutely affected, with car...

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Cote d`Ivoire Labour Market

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BMI View : Côte d'Ivoire's labour market cannot compete with its regional peers due to a general lack of education in the workforce, combined with poor public health and a residual hangover from a civil war that plagued the country from 2002-2004. Although Côte d'Ivoire has a favourable demographic situation, with 59% of the population under the age of 24, the country has proven incapable of turning its population into skilled workers, and we see no sign of this situation improving over the medium term. Taking these factors into consideration, BMI awards Côte d'Ivoire with a score of 32.6 out of 100, which places the country 23 rdin Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), between Ethiopa and Madagascar .

Although the population...

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Cote d`Ivoire Logistics

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BMI View : Côte d'Ivoire's supply chains suffer from insufficient regional linkages and stifling bureaucracy, which prevent the country from becoming a West African trade hub and damage its attractiveness for investors. Consequently, BMI awards Côte d'Ivoire with a score of 38.1 out of 100 for overall Logistics Risk, placing the country 16 thout of 44 in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), next to Nigeria and Sudan.

The country's transport network has yet to recover from the neglect it suffered as a result of the civil unrest that plagued Côte d'Ivoire between 2002 and 2010, when government spending was focused on the military. As such, transport infrastructure in the country is crumbling and in need of renovation. Although the country has rapidly growing import and...

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Cote d`Ivoire Trade & Investment

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BMI View :   Investors in Côte d'Ivoire are able to take advantage of the country's return to political stability and economic growth thanks to President Alassane Ouattara's business friendly reforms. These include a new investment code which incentivises foreign investment, targeted infrastructure upgrading, and streamlining the country's commercial dispute resolution mechanisms. Equally, the country's expanding consumer class ha s access to credit facilities on account of the proliferation of mobile banking, thereby expanding the size of the domestic market. Even so, despite Côte d'Ivoire's strides forward, businesses must still negotiate a number of hurdles when conducting business in the country. Most notably, judges in the Ivoirian judicial system are political appointees and are renowned for their partiality when settling...

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Cote d`Ivoire Industry Coverage (6)

Autos

Cote d`Ivoire Autos

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According to Renault, total industry auto sales in Cote d'Ivoire rose 7.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2014, to 667 units. This brought total vehicle sales for Q114 to 2,001 units, an increase of 17.6% y-o-y.

Côte d'Ivoire has suffered from chronic underinvestment following years of conflict and civil war. Its poor transport infrastructure, deteriorating road networks and high number of military checkpoints have had a negative impact on foreign investment.

However, the end of the post-electoral conflict provided an opportunity to push democratisation forward and in December 2011 parliamentary elections passed relatively smoothly.

Prior to the conflict of 2002, Côte d'Ivoire was a leading light in African business, with a stable economy and financial sector. It remains one of the largest economies in West Africa with a relatively developed business infrastructure. It is...

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Food & Drink

Cote d`Ivoire Food & Drink

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Côte d'Ivoire is among Sub-Saharan Africa's fastest growing economies, supporting our view that the country's food, beverage and retail sectors have a very positive medium-term outlook. Over our five-year forecast period, an advantageous domestic demographic picture and the highly underdeveloped nature of the local market will leave tremendous room for growth. We still expect to see average annual real GDP growth of close to 9% between 2014 and 2018. By our forecasts, this places Côte d'Ivoire as the fourth fastest growing Sub-Saharan African country to 2018, behind Sierra Leone, Mozambique and South Sudan. As a result, we believe that incomes will rise by almost 50%, driving a nominal increase in per capita food consumption of 46.3% between 2013 and 2018.

Key Forecasts

  • 2014 total food consumption growth (local currency terms): +10.4%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +10...

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Infrastructure

Cote d`Ivoire Infrastructure

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Cote d'Ivoire's construction sector has entered a new period of growth. Following decades of underinvestment and weak to no growth, we are forecasting 10.6% annual average growth between 2014 and 2018. A number of mega projects, in line with the country's USD22.8bn National Development Plan, are seeing significant investment taking place in the country's infrastructure sector. Funded by public and private sources, the country is experiencing a boom in investment in the transport and power sectors, while growing natural resource investment is creating additional demand for new capacity. However, the security and political risks remain a very real threat, although a significant deterioration in the political climate is not our core view.

Growth in 2014 and 2015 is expected to hit double digits at 15.7% and 14.6% respectively, continuing a strong rebound estimated for 2013, following a six-year contraction in industry growth due to lengthy...

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Mining

Cote d`Ivoire Mining

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BMI View: We expect West Africa's mining sector to undergo rapid growth as companies are attracted to the region's sizeable mineral deposits. Iron ore will be the centre of this transformation as abundant high-grade reserves in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Cote d'Ivoire offer unrivalled opportunities. However, risks to this bullish outlook remain weighted to the downside, with weak global iron ore prices, insufficient infrastructure and political concerns top of the list.

West Africa will exhibit some of the fastest rates of growth in iron ore production over the coming years which will make the region a major export hub by 2018. We expect steady growth in gold production in Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso, however we highlight that weak gold prices will squeeze margins for gold miners and precipitate mine closures where cash costs become unsustainable.

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West African Boom

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cote d`Ivoire Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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Cote d'Ivoire remains one of the least attractive pharmaceutical markets to multinationals looking to launch innovative products in Africa. This is due to poor patent respect, lack of policy enforcement and approvals expediency and a generally weak business setting. The healthcare market remains underdeveloped, while the burden of communicable diseases is considerable. Nevertheless, we have a more positive outlook for economic and pharmaceutical growth in the long term. In this respect, the government needs to make progress in expanding drug provision, improving the supply chain and cracking down on the presence of counterfeit and substandard drugs if it is to convince multinational investors to enter the market. In West Africa, we view Ghana, followed by Nigeria, as more attractive destinations for innovative drugmakers considering product launches.The country ranks 142nd globally in terms of health and...

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Telecommunications

Cote d`Ivoire Telecommunications

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BMI View: Our Q414 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of seven countries: Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. The greatest growth area in these markets is the broadband sector, which should benefit from improved international connectivity, investment in wireless data networks and cheaper devices. The mobile operators in the region will also seek to expand their non-voice services portfolios to create new revenue streams that will offset the sluggish revenue growth from traditional services.  

Key Data

  • The average mobile market growth for the seven countries in our...

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