Cuba
In-depth country-focused analysis on Cuba's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Cuba's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cuba, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cuba's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cuba before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cuba Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views:

  • We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism sector, and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.

  • We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year 2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment, and see a high likelihood of debt restructuring by the commonwealth's electric power authority (PREPA) this year.

  • We expect the Cuban economy to accelerate in the coming years, on the back of the government's drive to attract greater levels of investment, and on continued expansion of the consumer sector. This will help to offset weakness in the export sector, and rising demand for imports. 

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We...

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Cuba Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views:

  • We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism sector, and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.

  • We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year 2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment, and see a high likelihood of debt restructuring by the commonwealth's electric power authority (PREPA) in 2015.

  • We expect the Cuban economy to accelerate in the coming years, on the back of the government's drive to attract greater levels of investment, and on continued expansion of the consumer sector. This will help to offset weakness in the export sector, and rising demand for imports. 

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We...

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Cuba Industry Coverage (4)

Medical Devices

Cuba Medical Devices

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BMI Industry View: The Cuban medical device market is the smallest in the America s region a nd is projected to register the third lowest 2013-2018 CAGR in the region . The market is reliant on imports from mainly China and Europe . US suppliers cannot compete due to the US economic embargo but opportunities might exist in a post-embargo era . Imports were inflated between 2004 and...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cuba Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View:  With a steady flow of funds and consistent oversight from the government, Cuba will continue to invest heavily in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors to ensure that the domestic industry continues to outpace other sectors. More foreign companies will look to embrace emerging opportunities in the country, which desires greater involvement in the global economy .  

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: CUP1.35bn (USD1.35bn) in 2013 to CUP1.42bn (USD1.42bn) in 2014; +5.5% in local currency terms and US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: CUP6.56bn (USD6.56bn) in 2013 to CUP6.85bn (USD6.85bn) in 2014; +4.4% in local currency terms and US dollar terms.

...

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Telecommunications

Cuba Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View:   Investment opportunities are emerging all over the Caribbean, with many markets drawing attention from potential new players. In the Bahamas, BTC is under threat from new player from the end of its monopoly licence and is keen to enter the underdeveloped Haitian telecoms sector to offset the new competitive threat. Four players including Cable & Wireless Communications , Star Mobile Caribbean , Columbus Communications and Suriname's state-owned Telesur have all shown interest in acquiring a licence in Trinidad & Tobago after the regulator solicited bids during the auction of new spectrum. We've also highlighted Cuba as a market of to watch, as there are signs...

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Tourism

Cuba Tourism

BMI View:

BMI View: The Caribbean region is returning to sustained growth, with all countries expecting tourist arrivals to increase in 2015 and 2016. However, growth is expected to remain below pre-2007 levels , with regional arrivals now increasing at an average of about 3% annually . Nonetheless, we expect that improving growth prospects will encourage greater investment in the region, particularly in the hotel sector.

Our tourism report for the Caribbean considers the impact of ongoing global economic uncertainty on the Caribbean tourism industry and how the region's fiscal issues are affecting tourism arrivals. Following the decline of the financial services industry after the economic downturn hit in 2007, tourism has increased in...

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