Our comprehensive assessment of Cuba's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cuba, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cuba's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cuba before your competitors.
Cuba Country Risk
We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism sector, and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.
We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year 2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment, and see a high likelihood of debt restructuring by the commonwealth's electric power authority (PREPA) this year.
We expect the Cuban economy to accelerate in the coming years, on the back of the government's drive to attract greater levels of investment, and on continued expansion of the consumer sector. This will help to offset weakness in the export sector, and rising demand for imports.Â
Major Forecast Changes:
Cuba Country Risk
Cuba Industry Coverage (4)
Cuba Medical Devices
Espicom Industry View: Â The Cuban medical device market Â is the smallest in the America s region a nd is projected to register the third lowest 2013-2018Â CAGR in the region . The market is reliant on imports from mainly China and Europe . US suppliers cannot compete due to the US economic embargo but opportunities might exist in a post-embargo era . Imports were inflated...
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Cuba Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Â WithÂ a steady flow ofÂ funds and consistent oversight from the government, CubaÂ will continue toÂ invest heavily in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors to ensure thatÂ theÂ domestic industryÂ continues toÂ outpace other sectors. More foreign companies will look toÂ embraceÂ emergingÂ opportunitiesÂ in the country, whichÂ desiresÂ greaterÂ involvementÂ in the global economy . Â
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: CUP1.35bn (USD1.35bn) in 2013Â to CUP1.42bn (USD1.42bn) in 2014; +5.5% in local currency terms and US dollar terms.
Healthcare: CUP6.56bn (USD6.56bn) in 2013 to CUP6.85bn (USD6.85bn) in 2014; +4.4% in local currency terms andÂ US dollar terms.
BMI View: Â Investment opportunities are emerging all over the Caribbean, with many markets drawing attention from potential new players. In the Bahamas, BTC is under threat from new player from the end of its monopoly licence and is keen to enter the underdeveloped Haitian telecoms sector to offset the new competitive threat. Four players including Cable & Wireless Communications , Star Mobile Caribbean , Columbus Communications and Suriname's state-owned Telesur have all shown interest in acquiring a licence in Trinidad & Tobago after the regulator solicited bids during the auction of new spectrum. We've also highlighted Cuba as a market of to watch, as there are signs...
BMI View: The Caribbean region is returning to sustained growth, with all countries expecting tourist arrivals to increase Â in 2014 and 2015 . However, this is expected to remain below pre-2007 trend growth, with regional arrivals now averaging about 3.0% annual growth. Nonetheless, we expect that improving growth prospects will encourage greater investment in the region, particularly in the hotel sector.
Our tourism report for the Caribbean considers the impact of ongoing global economic uncertainty on the Caribbean tourism industry and how the region's fiscal issues are affecting its tourism arrivals. Following the decline of the financial services industry after the economic downturn hit in 2007, tourism has increased in...