In-depth country-focused analysis on Guinea's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Guinea's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Guinea, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Guinea's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Guinea before your competitors.

Country Risk

Guinea Country Risk

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  • Political Risk will remain elevated in Francophone West Africa, a region which is characterised by weak state institutions and lasting political instability. Violence in Mali and the collapse of the Central African Republic highlight the fragility of impoverished inland countries, and the need for regional solutions to failed states.

  • Long-term Economic G rowth in Francophone West Africa will average just 5.0% between 2014 and 2023, much lower than the 6.4% that we forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa). BMI believes that the economies of UEMOA will outperform those of CEMAC, many of which are struggling with stagnating oil production.

  • Economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire will remain elevated, averaging 8.0% between 2014...

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Guinea Industry Coverage (2)


Guinea Mining

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BMI View: We expect West Africa's mining sector to undergo rapid growth as companies are attracted to the region's sizeable mineral deposits. Iron ore will be the centre of this transformation as abundant high-grade reserves in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Cote d'Ivoire offer unrivalled opportunities. However, risks to this bullish outlook remain weighted to the downside, with weak global iron ore prices, insufficient infrastructure and political concerns top of the list.

West Africa will exhibit some of the fastest rates of growth in iron ore production over the coming years which will make the region a major export hub by 2018. We expect steady growth in gold production in Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso, however we highlight that weak gold prices will squeeze margins for gold miners and precipitate mine closures where cash costs become unsustainable.

West African Boom

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Guinea Telecommunications

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BMI View: Guinea's lack of fixed-line operator has allowed the mobile market to flourish. With steadily climbing penetration and continued growth potential, the mobile market offers the greatest returns on investment in the market. There is limited demand for fixed broadband with wireless options offering greater flexibility and good download rates. Competition for 3G services is good, although take-up remains low. Figures show that mobile data subscribers are gradually moving from 2G to 3G connections are encouraging for operators, although we believe translating that to higher spending will be the operators' main challenge over the next five years.

Key Data

  • Mobile subscriptions will slow over 2014-2018 as operators seek growth in rural areas, which are costly to reach and offer slower returns on growth. 3G subscriptions will account...

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