Our comprehensive assessment of Ireland's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Ireland, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Ireland's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Ireland before your competitors.
Ireland Country Risk
We hold an increasingly positive view of Ireland's prospects of an economic recovery over the next few years.
We forecast above-consensus real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2014, underpinned by our view that consumer spending will begin playing a bigger role in the recovery.
Ireland will maintain its competitive advantage in the service export sector.
However, the country's favourable corporate tax regime is likely to come under increasing international pressure in 2014, damaging the country's reputation within the EU and placing government under increasing scrutiny.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised-up our forecasts for real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2014, from a forecast of 2.1% previously, against the...
Ireland Industry Coverage (5)
Food & Drink
Ireland Food & Drink
BMI View: Â We continue to believe that Ireland's economic recovery will gather momentum in 2014 with the economy growing at an annual rate of 2.1%, followed by 2.3% the following year, and increasing each year in our five-year forecast, driven by a strong performance in the manufacturing sector and exports. Gradually easing unemployment and rising wages should support an increase in household disposable incomes, which we expect to have positive implications for consumer spending on food and drink.
Headline Industry Data
Total food consumption (local currency) growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014: +2.7; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +3.5%
Per capita food consumption (local currency) growth y-o-y in 2014: +1.6%; CAGR...
BMI View : Premiums will only grow slowly in Ireland's substantial and innovative insurance sector. This is due in part to the general maturity of life insurance in the major markets of the European Union, and in part because of actual (and likely) currency movements. It is important to note, though, that the country remains very competitive as an international financial services sector, and that the leading companies are world class. Changes in the global reinsurance sector will likely result in a continued reduction in the number of companies that are writing inwards reinsurance premiums on foreign risks in Ireland.
This is BMI's first report on the insurance sector of Ireland. The projected growth in premiums over the next year or so suggests that prospects are unexciting. However, this metric on its own obscures the...
Ireland Medical Devices
Espicom Industry View : Ireland represents a small, but advanced medical device market , which is valued at a n estimated EUR 603.9mn (US$797.2 mn ) in 2013. In US dollar terms, t he market contracted between 2008 and 201 3 , but returned to growth in 2013 and is forecas t to grow at a CAGR of 2.2 % in US dollars, to reach US$888.3 mn in 2018. Ireland has a strong medical device manufacturing sector, and is an attractive location for US and other firms to use as a European base.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: The US government and the OECD recent proposals to discourage corporate inversion pose downside risk to the rate of M&A deals that opt to establish their new headquarters' domicile in Ireland, although the megatrend of consolidation within the pharmaceutical industry, including cross-border mergers and redomiciling in Ireland for tax saving purposes , is expected to continue over the nea r term. More broadly, due to potential acquisitive interest in different Irish pharmaceutical equities, as well as the Irish industry reputation in pharmaceutical research and development, we expect intense M&A activity involving Irish-based firms to continue over the next quarters, observing various strategic rationale and eventual tax savings potential....
BMI View: BMI still expects to see slightly stronger mobile subscription growth and slower contraction of the fixed-line market in 2014, and we expect price competition to intensify across all sectors, including the mobile market, despite recent consolidation activity, and pay-TV, following eircom's launch of eVision-branded IPTV in Q413. We also hold to our current outlook for modest growth in the broadband market on the back of eircom's progress with its next-generation access network, the rollout of 4G LTE services and the planned joint venture between Vodafone and Electricity Services Board (ESB).
At the end of 2013 there were 5.626mn mobile subscriptions in Ireland, including mobile broadband and M2M subscriptions.Â
We estimate that market wide ARPUs recovered slightly to EUR27.2Â in...