Our comprehensive assessment of Jamaica's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Jamaica, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Jamaica's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Jamaica before your competitors.
Jamaica Country Risk
We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism sector, and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.
We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year 2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment, and see a high likelihood of debt restructuring by the commonwealth's electric power authority (PREPA) this year.
We expect the Cuban economy to accelerate in the coming years, on the back of the government's drive to attract greater levels of investment, and on continued expansion of the consumer sector. This will help to offset weakness in the export sector, and rising demand for imports.Â
Major Forecast Changes:
Jamaica Country Risk
Jamaica Industry Coverage (5)
Food & Drink
Jamaica Food & Drink
Though signs of growth are beginning to return to Caribbean states, many economies within the region continue to feel the spill-over effects of the 2009 financial crisis, which strongly shook the region's key industries of tourism and finance. Though the tourism industry is slowly regaining momentum in the region, we believe that it will take some time for pre-financial crisis growth. Furthermore, many regional economies continue to be heavily indebted which limits general investment. With this in mind, we forecast relatively slow food consumption growth in a majority of the Caribbean markets. Despite these difficulties, some markets, most notably Trinidad & Tobago, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, are expected to outperform over the forecast period. We highlight Puerto Rico and Barbados as the most precarious economies, which therefore have the greatest downside risks to our food & drink consumption forecasts.
BMI View: As in previous annual reports, we think that it is still fair and reasonable to describe the Caribbean as something of a backwater in terms of the insurance sectors of the various countries. A comparison with nearby markets in Latin America indicates that the Caribbean markets are small and not particularly rapidly growing.
In all five countries that we consider - Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, Bahamas, Dominican Republic and Barbados - a lacklustre economic environment has contained the growth of premiums and - in the life segments especially - boosted lapse rates. This has happened at a time that low interest rates and the restructuring of Jamaica's government debt have reduced investment income. Nevertheless, the major players are being proactive. As of late 2013, Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL) has introduced a new and unified brand for the entire region,...
BMI View: We expect uneven mining sector growth through 2018 across various countries within Ce ntral America and the Caribbean. The region has significant untapped mineral potential, though variations among countries' business environments and operational challenges will mean varied performance . Overall, we expect Colombia and Panama to see the strongest mining sector growth, while Guatemala, and to a lesser extent Honduras, underperform.
We expect Colombia and Panama to lead the region in terms of mining sector development, with the Dominican Republic not far behind. The former two lead in their overall business environments and mining sector regulatory framework, which should enable consistent investment and sector development...
BMI View: Â Investment opportunities are emerging all over the Caribbean, with many markets drawing attention from potential new players. In the Bahamas, BTC is under threat from new player from the end of its monopoly licence and is keen to enter the underdeveloped Haitian telecoms sector to offset the new competitive threat. Four players including Cable & Wireless Communications , Star Mobile Caribbean , Columbus Communications and Suriname's state-owned Telesur have all shown interest in acquiring a licence in Trinidad & Tobago after the regulator solicited bids during the auction of new spectrum. We've also highlighted Cuba as a market of to watch, as there are signs...
BMI View: The Caribbean region is returning to sustained growth, with all countries expecting tourist arrivals to increase Â in 2014 and 2015 . However, this is expected to remain below pre-2007 trend growth, with regional arrivals now averaging about 3.0% annual growth. Nonetheless, we expect that improving growth prospects will encourage greater investment in the region, particularly in the hotel sector.
Our tourism report for the Caribbean considers the impact of ongoing global economic uncertainty on the Caribbean tourism industry and how the region's fiscal issues are affecting its tourism arrivals. Following the decline of the financial services industry after the economic downturn hit in 2007, tourism has increased in...