Lebanon
In-depth country-focused analysis on Lebanon's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Lebanon's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Lebanon, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Lebanon's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Lebanon before your competitors.

Country Risk

Lebanon Country Risk

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Core Views

  • The ongoing civil war in Syria is having severe repercussions on the Lebanese economy. Lebanon's medium-term growth trajectory will settle well below pre-crisis levels due to a lack of investment in transportation and energy infrastructure.

  • Despite renewed fears over the economy's gaping external asymmetries, a loyal depositor base in the domestic banking sector, combined with a massive arsenal of foreign exchange reserves, should help bolster underlying stability through what will turn out as a prolonged period of political volatility. This will minimize the potential for an unexpected devaluation of the pound in 2015.

Major Forecast Revisions

  • We forecast real GDP in Lebanon to expand by 2.4% in 2015, from our previous forecast of 2.3%. Elevated political instability...

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Lebanon Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Lebanon Operational Risk

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BMI View: Lebanon is one of the poorest regional performers with regards to l abour m arket risks, with a small labour force, high employment costs , regionally low basic skills levels and expe nditure on secondary education and a limited (albeit developing) tertiary education system. Its overall rating is boosted, however, by the most flexible workforce in the region due to limited regulations and strikes.   Overall, we give Lebanon a total Labour Market Risk rating of 47.2 out of 100 in our Labour Market Risk Index. This puts it in 1 2 th...

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Lebanon Crime & Security

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Lebanon is a generally unsafe place for foreign business travellers, expatriate workers, and tourists. Risks to these groups range from petty, low-level crimes such as burglary and street crimes to sophisticated terrorist networks that threaten national security. The risk of terrorist attacks in Lebanon remains high, and terrorist networks, most notable among them Syria-backed Shia militant group Hizbullah, who are a significant presence in south of the country and the Bekaa Valley, offer refuge for many terrorists. There has, moreover, been a significant uptick in acts of terror since the civil war in neighbouring Syria began in 2011, with attacks concentrated on the border area with Syria, as well as in the urban centres of Beirut and Tripoli.

Criminal risks are rising in Lebanon, again in part due to a spillover of continuing violence in Syria. Foreign investors should note that violent crimes such as armed robberies and car jackings are...

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Lebanon Labour Market

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BMI View: Lebanon is one of the poorest regional performers with regards to l abour m arket risks, with a small labour force, high employment costs , regionally low basic skills levels and expe nditure on secondary education and a limited (albeit developing) tertiary education system. Its overall rating is boosted, however, by the most flexible workforce in the region due to limited regulations and strikes.   Overall, we give Lebanon a total Labour Market Risk rating of 46.4 out of 100 in our Labour Market Risk Index. This puts it in 11 th...

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Lebanon Logistics

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BMI View:    Given the recent turmoil in Syria, Lebanon is largely inaccessible overland, meaning greater strain is being placed on its shipping and air freight capabilities. While these industries are enjoying the increased demand for their usage, we believe that they are insufficient to supply Lebanon with the logistics capabilities required to conduct its international trade for the long-term, without considerable investment. This will limit the country's economic growth and leave it unable to supply its rapidly increasing indigenous and refugee populations. Similarly, the extra pressure placed upon the already-struggling electrical, water and fuel supplies will limit Lebanon's growth. Lebanon's Logistics Risk has been awarded a...

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Lebanon Trade & Investment

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BMI View: The main risk to effective trade and investment is the abundance of red tape plaguing bureaucratic procedures, putting investors at a high risk of confronting time-consuming and costly barriers when setting up a business. Further, we expect investors to continue to be deterred by the high legal risks involved in doing business in Lebanon, notably as a result of the rampant corruption and poor legal system. That said, Lebanon's top regional score for economic openness makes it an attractive place for foreign investors.  

We have given Lebanon a score of 91.5 out of 100 for Investment and Trade Openness in our Operational Risk Index, putting it in pole position out of the region's 18 countries. This high score reflects the fact that foreign direct investment (FDI) accounts for 122% of the country's GDP, indicating that the country has a...

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Lebanon Industry Coverage (7)

Autos

Lebanon Autos

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Heightened risk from the situation in Syria, coupled with a weak economic outlook, will continue to dampen autos demand in the Levant region. Of the three countries covered in this report, it is the smallest market (Jordan) that has the strongest near-term growth potential In 2014, BMI is targeting 5.8% growth in new vehicle sales rising to 6.7% and 6.8% growth across 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Backing up our cautiously optimistic outlook on the evolution of new vehicle sales in Jordan is our Country Risk team's belief that economic activity will strengthen from 2015 onward, due to robust public investment and gradual improvements in domestic demand. BMI forecasts real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.3% in 2014 and 4.1% in 2015, compared to an annual average of only 2.6% between 2010 and 2013.

Continued progress on public...

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Commercial Banking

Lebanon Commercial Banking

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

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Food & Drink

Lebanon Food & Drink

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Executive Summary

The outlook for private consumption is uninspiring. Although the latest Business Sentiment Survey from the central bank indicates a 3.4% y-o-y improvement in the headline reading in March, compared with an average increase of 0.6% in 2012, growth in the indicator has slowed steadily since 2010. According to a survey commissioned by the Qatar-based Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies, 95% of Lebanese respondents said that the current economic situation in Lebanon is 'bad' or 'very bad', the highest percentage among 14 Arab economies covered in the survey.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

? 2014 per capita food consumption = +4.3%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2017 = +3.9%.

? 2014 soft drink sales = +4.5%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2017 = +3.7%.

?...

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Information Technology

Lebanon Information Technology

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BMI View: Weaker than expected economical growth has lead BMI to downgrade its outlook for Lebanon's IT market, as a result we believe that it is expected to reach LBP575bn in 2014. Growth will rebound as of 2015, however , and the market will expand at an average rate of 7.24% over 2015-2018. While political instability and the lack of structural reform have lead to downgrading of economic growth short-term, BMI believes that there are a number of factors ultimately contributing to the IT sector's growth. These include rising incomes, declining device prices, improvements to telecoms infrastructure and modernisation by enterprises and the public sector. On the downside, IT development in Lebanon is subject to significant uncertainty as a result of security issues, which could be destabilising depending on the conflict in...

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Insurance

Lebanon Insurance

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BMI View: At first glance, it is obvious that many of the weaknesses that are common to (almost) all the national insurance markets of the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region feature in Lebanon and Jordan. However, both markets are patently open to competition from foreign insurers. In both cases, local companies are resilient. It is easy to find examples of innovation.

As of early 2014, it remains obvious that many of the weaknesses that are common to (almost) all the national insurance markets of the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region feature in Lebanon and Jordan. Neither is a particularly large market in absolute terms - nor will either ever be so. In both countries, there are literally dozens of undersized insurers, focusing mainly non non-life lines. They are lacking economies of scale, access to capital and ability to write risks without buying a lot of...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Lebanon Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View:   Lebanon ' s pharmaceutical sector is dominated by expensive drug imports as local firms ' innovation and drug output remains low. We believe a multilateral approach to promoting generic drugs, increased local production and using competition to lower prices will dramatically improve Lebanon's prospects for foreign direct investment. However, further drug price reductions with the health minister's recently amended pharmaceutical bill , along with the country's ongoing political crisis , will contribute to below - potential market growth.

...

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Telecommunications

Lebanon Telecommunications

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BMI View:   A lack of true competition in the mobile market has held back Lebanon's growth potential and we continue to forecast it remaining below 100% for the duration of our five-year forecast period. Government control stifles investment and innovation. We believe that pent-up demand, rather than significant network development and competitive pricing of telecoms services, is the main growth driver in Lebanon's telecoms market. There are few long-term plans for   the future and the continued short extensions of mobile management contracts do little to incentivise planning.   Previous strong   growth will fall to minimal increases unless...

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