Our comprehensive assessment of Namibia's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Namibia, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Namibia's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Namibia before your competitors.

Country Risk

Namibia Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views:

  • Strong domestic demand and accelerating investment in the mining sector will see economic growth in Namibia average a respectable 4.5% annually over the next five years. Over the near term, export performance will continue to be weighed down by weak global demand and soft commodity prices.

  • We expect the ruling SWAPO to secure a comfortable victory in November's general elections, with the party likely to maintain its broadly pro-business economic agenda in the years ahead. A weak and under-funded opposition will preclude anything other than a minor swing away from the ruling party.

  • Our broad outlook for Namibia's current account over the next few years remains relatively unchanged. We maintain that the country will sustain a sizeable current account shortfall over our 2014-2018 forecast period as demand for imports...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Namibia Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Namibia Operational Risk

BMI View:

From a regional perspective, Namibia is a safe and politically stable country. Although crime in the form of pick-pocketing, purse snatching and burglaries are relatively common, crimes to the person tend to be forms of domestic violence as opposed to targeted attacks. In addition, the country has an extremely low terrorism risk and a capable military. The country is considered low risk by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office Travel Advice, although it is advised that travellers exercise a sensible degree of caution. Consequently Namibia scores 66.8 out of 100 for its Crime and Security Risk, ranking it second in the Sub-Saharan African region behind Lesotho.

Crime in the capital city of Namibia, Windhoek, is high, with muggers often targeting foreign tourists. Attacks can take place in busy city centre locations in broad daylight, as well during late night journeys home. There have also been cases of credit card skimming at some hotels and...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Namibia Crime & Security

BMI View:

From a regional perspective, Namibia is a safe and politically stable country. Although crime in the form of pick-pocketing, purse snatching and burglaries are relatively common, crimes to the person tend to be forms of domestic violence as opposed to targeted attacks. In addition, the country has an extremely low terrorism risk and a capable military. The country is considered low risk by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office Travel Advice, although it is advised that travellers exercise a sensible degree of caution. Consequently Namibia scores 66.7 out of 100 for its Crime and Security Risk, ranking it second in the Sub-Saharan African region behind Lesotho.

Crime in the capital city of Namibia, Windhoek, is high, with muggers often targeting foreign tourists. Attacks can take place in busy city centre locations in broad daylight, as well during late night journeys home. There have also been cases of credit card skimming at some hotels and...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Namibia Labour Market

BMI View:

BMI considers Namibia's labour market to offer a number of opportunities to businesses looking to invest in Sub-Saharan Africa. A relatively high life expectancy, good rates of female participation in the labour force, strong literacy rates, low labour tax and contributions and minimal severance pay costs make the country a highly attractive location for businesses to invest in. However, the country does pose risks in terms of its low enrolment rates in secondary and tertiary education, high unemployment, and uncompetitive annual leave costs. These risks increase costs to businesses due to the need to employ foreign workers, train unskilled labourers and compensate for holiday leave. Scoring 41.7 out of 100, the country ranks eighth in the region in our Labour Market Risk Index, between Cameroon and Uganda.

With a population size of just 2.2mn, Namibia offers a relatively small pool of employees compared to some other...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Namibia Logistics

BMI View:

With one of the most highly ranked logistics networks on the continent, Namibia has become a regional transport hub, particularly for its landlocked neighbours, which benefit from its well-developed port and road infrastructure. Significant investments are being poured into ongoing projects to further boost the country's port, airport, road and railway infrastructure in an effort to increase its international appeal, but businesses remain burdened by Namibia's lengthy and burdensome trade governance processes, which multiply costs, lead times and delays. The country's limited utilities capabilities also present a notable source of risk, particularly in Namibia's vulnerability to droughts, its expensive Internet services, and its dependence on power and fuel imports. As such, Namibia scores 46.4 out of 100 for Logistics, ranking fourth in the region, between Seychelles and Ghana.

Namibia's economic and trade growth represents a major source of...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Namibia Trade & Investment

BMI View:

Namibia is a regional outperformer for Trade And Investment Risk thanks to its openness to trade and a regulatory environment that is both clear and favourable towards foreign investors. The country is ranked seventh out of 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a score of 50.6 out of 100. We attribute this to the high risks stemming from poor banking sector penetration and high levels of red tape when it comes to opening a business and registering property.

Economic Openness represents Namibia's highest risk segment in the Trade And Investment Risk Index, largely due to the country's limited banking sector which offers little credit for Namibians and hinders consumer spending and e-commerce development. There are just four main commercial banks in Namibia: Standard Bank, Nedbank Namibia, Bank Windhoek and FNB Namibia. Transaction costs for...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Namibia Industry Coverage (11)

Agribusiness

Namibia Agribusiness

BMI View:

BMI View:   We expect food security in South West Africa to improve over the short term , as we expect higher corn production from Zambia in 2014/15 . Over the medium term, we see downside risks to corn production in the region owing to new reforms introduced in Zambia that aim to reduce farm subsidies. Although this will help to improve the country's current account balance, it may lead to deteriorating food security across the region as farmers respond to lower prices. Even with reduced production incentives, we expect Zambia to easily remain the region's largest corn producer and exporter, while other countries in the region will struggle to maintain production surpluses. We see potential in the Angolan sugar sector due to recent...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Autos

Namibia Autos

BMI View:

New vehicle sales in Q214 came in at 5,192 units, an increase of 28.0% year-on-year (y-o-y). This brought auto sales for H114 to 10,278 units, an increase of 43.3% y-o-y. We have been bullish on auto demand for some time and recent industry sales figures reinforce our view. As a result of the strong momentum in H114, we have upgraded our full-year sales forecast and now expect vehicle sales in 2014 to rise 20.0% to 19,074 units.

While our Country Risk team expects private consumption growth to slow slightly in 2015 to 4.8% versus 5.0% in 2014, it will by no means derail the positive consumer story in the country. Therefore, we have upgraded our 2015 auto sales growth forecast to 14.0% versus 10.0% previously, which will see sales reaching 21,744 units in 2015.

As the central bank adopts a hawkish stance to curb rising inflation, our Country Risk team sees further monetary policy tightening in the coming quarters as...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Commercial Banking

Namibia Commercial Banking

BMI View:

...
Commercial Banking Sector Indicators 
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Food & Drink

Namibia Food & Drink

BMI View:

Despite Namibia having relatively high per capita incomes of USD5,248 in 2013, the country's income distribution is among the worst in the world. While unemployment remains high (estimated by the World Bank at 40%), poverty has been on a downward trend for more than a decade. The Fourth National Development Plan (launched in 2012) aims to tackle these problems with a programme designed to run until 2017. However, the country's relatively small population and rising concerns about a looming energy crisis make Namibia less attractive than a number of other Sub-Saharan African countries for growth-seeking multinational food and drink companies.

Key Forecasts (local currency)

  • 2014 total food consumption growth rate (local currency terms): +4.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +9.1%.

  • 2014 per capita food consumption growth rate (local...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Infrastructure

Namibia Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View:   Namibia's construction sector performs well within the region due to strong fundamentals with long-term growth of 10% per year forecast. In the near term the sector is expected to perform even bette r with stellar year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 27. 7 5% for 2014.   We expect prolonged construction industry to be maintained owing to the government's major investment drives and strong natural resource demand.

Namibia's construction sector growth is being driven by a number of factors (listed below). The country has great potential and a building boom has seen a flurry of contracts signed and building permits approved. This acceleration in approvals is...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Insurance

Namibia Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View:  The Interim results for 2014 suggest an overwhelmingly positive year for both non-life and life sectors in the Namibian insurance market with many factors suggesting this period of strong growth will continue well on into 2015 and beyond. The industry has benefited substantially from effective management decisions made at the start of 2014 when larger firms such as Liberty and Old Mutual began tailoring, innovating and diversifying their product mix; a decision which has resonated very well with Namibian consumers based on current results. The oncoming regulation changes also should contribute to a more efficient industry in the future.

For the most part, Namibia remains a microcosm of the South African market and because of this many of the trends prevalent in South Africa are prevalent in Namibia. This being said the close ties between the two countries undeniably has benefits for the Namibian market....

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Mining

Namibia Mining

BMI View:

BMI View:   While Namibia holds substantial diamond and uranium reserves among other minerals, the government's potential to enforce policy to extract greater revenue from the sector remains a key downside risk to investment. Overall, we forecast Namibia's mining industry value to grow on average 4.7% y-o-y from an estimated USD1.5bn in 2014 to USD1.9 bn in 2018. This will represent a decline in the mining sector's contribut ion to GDP from 13% in 2014 to 10 % in 2018.   On the positive side, we anticipate greater Chinese investment in mine development in the country.

Uranium To Drive Growth
Namibia - % Growth In Output
...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Namibia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View:   There are signs the Namibian government is taking the ongoing problem related to drug shortages and supply issues seriously, with the Tender Board of Namibia approving a NAD400mn spending allowance for the Ministry of Health and Social Services, to allow it to buy the drugs it needs. However, we believe that healthcare access for many of the country's citizens is likely to remain problematic as long as the country's dependence on imports remains so high.

Headline Expenditure Forecasts

  • Pharmaceuticals: NAD2.47bn (USD256mn) in 2013 to NAD2.82bn (USD263mn) in 2014; +13.8% in local currency and +2.6% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: NAD9.87bn (USD1.02bn) in 2013 to NAD11.05bn (USD1.032bn) in 2014; +11.9% in local currency...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Power

Namibia Power

BMI View:

BMI View:   Namibia is at a critical juncture in the development of its electricity sector. The country is currently facing a severe crisis in the provision of power due to an extreme reliance on a dilapidated hydropower system, which is vulnerable to breakdown and drought, and on imported electricity from South Africa. Various projects are in the pipeline which will radically transform the country ' s ability to generate electricity during the course of this decade, above all the Kudu gas-fired power station and the newly-announced Arandis Power Station, as well as further smaller investments in hydropower and solar energy. Together, these will end Namibia ' s dependence on imports and eventually allow the country to become an exporter of energy. 

At the same time, Nampower is...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Telecommunications

Namibia Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View :  BMI's Q 4 14 Southern Africa report analyses the latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets in Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Mauritius and Namibia. It also contains analysis of the latest market data relating to the end of June 2014   a nd an update of   our five-year forecasts to 2018 for the mobile, fixed-...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tourism

Namibia Tourism

BMI View:

BMI View: Namibia's tourism market is in the early stages of development, with the country positioning itself as a leading safari and beach holiday destination in Southern Africa in order to compete with more established markets. While we expect to see healthy growth across all key tourism indicators by the end of the forecast period , the country will need to make substantial improvements to transport and accommodation facilities .

The number of inbound arrivals to Namibia has been increasingly steadily, with 2014 showing just under 5% growth leading to some 1.18mn arrivals. Forecasts for 2015 are less positive, with declines in arrivals from key source markets such as Germany leading to an overall decrease in arrivals of around 0.14%. Growth is expected to recover by the end of the forecast period, indicating that arrivals...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login