Ground Offensive Not Resulting In Lasting Resolution

BMI View:   The Israeli ground offensive in the Gaza S trip will last less than a month . A ceasefire will not result in a lasting solution to the conflict , and Hamas will remain in control of the Strip . The offensive could lead to radicalisation in Gaza , while t he heavy de a th toll of Palestinian civilians will increase Israel's isolation on the international stage.

We expect the ongoing Israeli 'Operation Protective Edge' military operation against Hamas - the militant group and political party that still effectively rules the Gaza Strip - to end with a ceasefire which will not result in a long-term solution to the conflict. In a major escalation in the 11-day offensive, Israeli tanks and troops entered Gaza on July 17 after Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu ordered a ground invasion. Israel will seek to erode Hamas's military capabilities - an objective that it feels cannot be achieved with air and missile strikes alone - and to put pressure on Hamas and other Palestinian groups to accept a ceasefire.

This development was anticipated by BMI. In our most recent analysis of the Israel-Hamas conflict ( see 'Israel-Hamas Flare-Up Hitting Financial Markets', July 9), we wrote: ' We see significant risk that the ongoing exchange of fire between Israel and Hamas will escalate into a protracted Israeli air campaign or ground operation in Gaza, despite neither side having much to gain from a further flare-up.'

No Lasting Agreement In Sight 
Palestinian Territories - Map

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This article is tagged to:
Sector: Country Risk
Geography: Israel, West Bank and Gaza