Oil Heavyweights Counteract Problematic Supply Regions
BMI View: Growing production in North America and Saudi Arabia will counteract the persistent supply issues in key producing regions. Combined with our more bearish oil consumption outlook for China for the year, the global oil market equilibrium shows a tentative surplus for 2014 onwards.
Our forecasts for global oil production present a mixed picture. On the one hand, over the previous quarter, we downgraded our 2014 forecasts for major producers like Libya and Nigeria; on the other hand, we also upgraded our forecasts for Saudi Arabia and North America, thus counter-balancing some of the declines. The net effect has been a gain of 368,000 b/d in global oil production.
On the consumption front, a downgrade in our China oil consumption forecasts has reduced the global oil consumption figure by 123,000 b/d.
|Tentative Recovery Unevenly Distributed|
|Global Oil Supply, Demand and Balance Forecast, 000s b/d|