Norway
In-depth country-focused analysis on Norway's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Norway's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Norway, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Norway's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Norway before your competitors.

Country Risk

Norway Country Risk

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Core Views

  • We continue to expect a slowdown in oil sector investment, an uncompetitive export sector, and a cooling residential real estate sector to weigh on Norwegian GDP growth in 2014-15.

  • The residential housing market has been a major contributor to overall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set to cool over the next few years. While we have not yet seen signs of a full-blown housing crash, real estate prices have faltered, and we will be vigilant for signs of a more pronounced correction in the coming quarters.

  • We believe that the newly-elected Conservative-Progress minority coalition government is unlikely to agitate for major changes in policy in the new future.

Key Forecast Changes

  • We have lowered our 2014 real GDP growth...

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Norway Industry Coverage (6)

Autos

Norway Autos

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BMI maintains a modest view on the Norwegian autos market. Growth is expected to come from the dominant passenger car segment, with electric vehicle subsidies and strong private consumption growth buoying the market. However, the commercial vehicle segment is expected to remain in negative growth during 2014, due to low government spending on infrastructure and the uncompetitive manufacturing sector.

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Food & Drink

Norway Food & Drink

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BMI view:  We believe the Nordics food and drink market will be picking up growth after the difficult 2012 and 2013. Increasing consumer focus on health and wellness will drive the sales of natural and high quality food products, which are expected to outperform over the forecast period to 2018. That said, we note that subdued   consumer outlook and uncertain economic environment will continue to limit the overall region's potential.

Key Forecasts

Denmark

  • 2014 total food consumption value (local currency) growth (year-on-year) in Denmark: +4.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +4.9%

  • 2014 total soft drinks value sales...

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Medical Devices

Norway Medical Devices

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Espicom Industry View :   The Norweg ian medical device market is limited by the size of the population , but enjoys above average per capi ta spendi ng of US$294 . The market is projected to grow at a US dollar CAGR of 3.1 % to 2018 with the ageing population the main growth driver. The market will continue to be import-led with much of domes tic production geared to the export market.

Headline Industry Forecasts

  • In 2013...

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Oil & Gas

Norway Oil & Gas

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BMI View:   Efforts to slow the decline rate of Norway's oil output are beginning to pay off, and we forecast a return to production growth in 2014 for the first time in 12 years. Gas production remains weak in the short-term as lacklustre European demand reduces incentives to produce, though long-term prospects remain strong.   G rowing industry costs, combined with limited incentives to develop marginal fields and improve recovery rates, remain a major threat to investment and production growth over   our forecast .

Headline Forecasts (Norway 2012-2018)
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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Norway Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: While the Norwegian government's pro-generic stance will continue to support growth in the country's off-patent medicines market, we highlight that the loss of market value in the patented drugs sector will not translate into an equivalent gain for the generic drugs market as a result of the much lower cost of generics.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: NOK19.90bn (USD3.36bn) in 2013 to NOK20.28bn (USD3.29bn) in 2014; 1.93% in local currency terms.

Healthcare: NOK272.01bn (USD45.97bn) in 2013 to DKK280.88bn (USD45.62bn) in 2014; +3.3% in local currency terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Norway scores 68.8 out of 100 in our ratings for Q414. The country's strong emphasis on the regulatory...

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Telecommunications

Norway Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: The Norwegian telecommunications market faces a change of dynamics following the exit of Tele2, one of the largest operators in July 2014. This is set to bring about redistribution in market shares. The country's second largest operator TeliaSonera will boost its market share having acquired Tele2 assets, while newcomer Access Industries is poised to erode the market share of both incumbent Telenor and TeliaSonera having secured necessary bandwidth and financing to increase its presence in Norwegian market. BMI believes that telecommunications operators will be mostly focussing on data services to increase ARPU, this will not affect the subscriber numbers, however, as the market is past saturation point. Broadband services have scope for growth, especially from rural areas, boosted by a new government support...

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