Rwanda
In-depth country-focused analysis on Rwanda's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Rwanda's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Rwanda, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Rwanda's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Rwanda before your competitors.

Country Risk

Rwanda Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • Rwanda's standing with foreign investors is improving, but allegations that the government engages in extrajudicial killings and kidnappings could mar the country's reputation as an economic reformer.

  • Economic expansion in Rwanda is picking up as the country recovers from its 2012 aid crisis. Real GDP growth will reach 6.7% in 2015 and average 7.0% between 2015 and 2018.

  • New figures from Rwanda's ministry of finance show a wider-than anticipated fiscal deficit in 2013 and 2014, but this shortfall will narrow in 2015. Economic growth will gradually reduce the country's dependence on foreign grants. 

  • Surging population growth, low base effects and a government committed to market-friendly structural reforms will see Rwanda's economy expand rapidly over the coming years. The country's difficult...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Rwanda Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Rwanda Operational Risk

BMI View:

Rwanda is a high-risk country in absolute and global terms despite comparing favourably with other Sub-Saharan African countries. Its overall Operational Risk score is depressed by a number of factors, namely its poor logistics network - a consequence of an overdependence on road freight - and the ongoing threats to national security. A dearth of natural resources and an agrarian economy also represent significant drags on the overall score, making it an unattractive destination for foreign investors. That said, Rwanda's low corruption rate, free-market economy and financial incentives for investors significantly reduce risks to incoming businesses.

Overall, Rwanda is an unattractive country for investors - albeit hugely improved since the 1994 genocide - with high operational risks reflected in its score of 42.1 out of 100 in our Operational Risk Index. This puts it in 10th position out of 44 countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region. We...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Rwanda Crime & Security

BMI View:

Rwanda has become a generally safe place for foreign business travellers, expatriate workers and tourists, with the ethnic violence and domestic instability of the 1990s having largely subsided. Despite a persistent threat from low-level terrorist activity, the risk to worker safety or disruption to business operations is low, with the minimal impact of crime also presenting an advantage for investors looking to locate in the country. However, Rwanda's insecure international position, and the continuing activity of rebel and terrorist organisations in the region, continue to pose a threat to the country's stability. Rwanda is therefore placed in the middle of the pack in the Sub-Saharan Africa region in our Crime and Security Risk Index, with its score of 43.0 placing it 17th out of 44 states.

Criminal risks in Rwanda are low by regional standards, and there is no systemic threat to foreign workers in the country. Although violent crimes...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Rwanda Labour Market

BMI View:

Rwanda has a largely rural, unskilled labour force. Very low secondary and tertiary enrolment rates are significant impediments to the development of a skilled workforce capable of skilled, technical labour. That said, the country has made significant progress towards achieving universal primary education, and we are cautiously optimistic that this will extend to secondary education in the long term. Rwanda scores 46.5 for overall Labour Market Risk, placing it in fourth position out of 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, behind Mauritius, Ghana and Seychelles.

Rwanda's labour force is large and predominantly rural and unskilled.. That 85.5% of the working population is in employment is an encouraging sign, indicating a large labour pool and buoyant economy. However, most of this 85% are engaged in subsistence farming, significantly limiting the size of the urban labour pool.

Rwanda scores 46.3 out of 100 for...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Rwanda Logistics

BMI View:

BMI View: Rwanda's lack of logistics options and underdeveloped utilities sector heighten risks for investors seeking to expand into the country. Robust economic growth over the medium term will create opportunities for investment, particularly in the services sector. However, we highlight that the lack of diversification options for supply chains, and the overstretched utilities infrastructure, will continue to cause disruption and pose additional costs to business activities, acting as a drag on growth and hindering the outlook for investors. What's more, the cost of exporting and importing will remain elevated due to the country's landlocked status. Consequently, Rwanda is an underperformer in the BMI Logistics Risk Index on both a regional and a global scale. Its score of 26.9 out of 100 places it in a low 33rd out of 44 Sub-Saharan Africa states, and 14th from bottom...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Rwanda Trade & Investment

BMI View:

Despite its open, free-market economy and pro-investment policies, foreign investment options in Rwanda are limited due to its agricultural economy and limited natural resources. More positively, corruption levels are low, red tape is limited, and bureaucratic procedures, contract enforceability and intellectual property rights protection are strong. The country is also open to international trade and investment. That said, Rwanda is significantly affected by its small banking sector and limited foreign investment. Rwanda scores 47.0 out of 100 in our Trade and Investment Risk Index. While this is low in absolute terms, it puts Rwanda in ninth position regionally, between Zambia and Swaziland (on 49.4 and 45.0 points respectively).

Foreign investment in Rwanda is very limited. This is largely due to the very limited foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country: FDI accounts for only 10.5% of Rwanda's total GDP. In large part this can be...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Rwanda Industry Coverage (1)

Telecommunications

Rwanda Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: Our Q 4 14 East Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. Analysis of market data provided by telecoms regulators and network operators show that despite fairly low mobile penetration rates, subscriptions growth in most markets continued to slow in the first half of 2014, compared to 2013 and 2012. ARPUs also drop ped further in countries with the most competitive markets and are now firmly in low single digits . The combination of these...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login