Our comprehensive assessment of South Sudan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect South Sudan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact South Sudan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in South Sudan before your competitors.
South Sudan Country Risk
While conflicts between various tribes and ethnicities were already ongoing in both countries, the descent into full-scale armed conflict in South Sudan has major negative implications for the two countries, significantly curtailing growth and weakening the external accounts.
The Sudanese economy will continue to operate well below potential in 2015 on account of restrained government spending, an unappealing investment climate and both domestic and regional insecurity. Â We predict that real GDP growth in 2015 will come in at around 3.8%. Â
Major Forecast Changes:
No major forecast changes
Key Risks To Outlook:
South Sudan Industry Coverage (7)
South Sudan Autos
BMI View: Â Rising political unrest and insecurity across Sudan represent a growing threat to economic activity and autos sales in the country. We maintain our bearish forecast for Sudanese new car sales at just 6,890 new car sales in 2018, up slightly from 4,600 cars expected to be sold in 2014.
Rising political unrest and insecurity across Sudan will significantly disrupt economic activity over the coming quarters. High inflation will continue to weigh on headline growth and private consumption especially, while the ongoing crisis in South Sudan will see oil production stall. We predict that real GDP growth will registerÂ 2.0 % in 2014 and 4.3% in 2015, with risks weighted heavily to the downside.
We have revised down our economic growth forecasts for...
Defence & Security
South Sudan Defence & Security
BMI View: Sudan is almost wholly dependent on the import of military equipment and services. It sources considerable supplies of equipment from Russia and China, both of which are willing to furnish the regime with arms despite it being under a number of major international sanctions. A key driver behind the expansion of its military capabilities will remain the deteriorating situation in South Sudan and the ongoing violence between warring factions, opposition groups and Government authorities.
Sudan continues to be wholly dependent on the import of military equipment and services, sourcing considerable supplies from Russia and China. Most of Sudan's imported small arms, light weapons, ammunition, rocket and grenade launchers have come from China in recent years, a trend we expect to continue as the need for large volumes of arms remains amidst...
Food & Drink
South Sudan Food & Drink
Economic conditions in Sudan remain challenging. The effects of the September 2013 currency devaluation (including soaring inflation), restrained government spending and a weak security environment will see real GDP growth come in at just 2.6% in 2014, according to our estimates. We are slightly more positive on the country's growth prospects in 2015 but expect that real GDP growth - at a projected 3.8% - will remain well below potential.
The improvement will be due, in part, to easing inflationary pressure as the government keeps monetary and fiscal policy tight. This will provide some support to Sudanese consumers, who have seen their incomes eroded by surging inflation over the last 12 months. Increasing domestic oil production will provide a boost to exports as the country strives to fill the gaping hole left by oil-rich South Sudan's 2011 secession.
While we expect conditions to improve over the next 12 months,...
South Sudan Infrastructure
BMI View: Â We do not expect market conditions to improve drastically over 2015 in either Sudan or South Sudan.Â Conflict has drastically eroded what little investor confidence there was in the markets and as such we forecast volatile and poor growth for both countries over our forecast period. Oil flows between the two countries will be a vital source of revenue, although they remain highly vulnerable to any souring of relations. Â
While current events in Sudan and South Sudan overshadow their relationship with each other, oil trade between the two remains the key to any kind of sustainable growth with the respective construction...
Oil & Gas
South Sudan Oil & Gas
BMI View: Â F ighting has derailed the country's fragile production recovery, adding further downside pressure to its bearish long-term production outlook. With the government claiming loose control of the major oil fields, output could start to revive within the quarter. However, given the fractured and volatile nature of the conflict and the heavy rebel presence in the oil-producing states, we anticipate more lasting production outages .
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Â The already depreciating Â Sudanese pound will come under further strain should oil prices continue their decline as oil exports account for around 70% of total exports in the country. We are already forecasting short-term negative growth in US dollar terms for the pharmaceutical market which could come under increased scrutiny should prices decline further. Our long-term outlook is more positive due to the government's plans to develop the pharmaceutical sector and expand access to healthcare.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SDG2.05bn (USD438mn) in 2013 to SDG2.32bn (USD379mn) in 2014; +12.9% in local currency terms andÂ -13.5% in US dollar terms.Â Forecast revised...
South Sudan Power
BMI View: Â The end of the civil war provides a window of opportunity for investors to exploit the hydrocarbons base and ample sunshine to develop a generation capacity in both Sudan and South Sudan. However, the commercial environment in both is hostile and the political environment remains highly unstable .Â
The outlook for Sudan's power sector is moderate. The end of the civil war provides a window of opportunity for the country to exploit its hydrocarbons base and ample sunshine to develop a domestic generation capacity. Power generation in 2014 will increase by 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 7.2TWh and consumption will grow by 3.5% y-o-y to 5.6TWh. However, the commercial environment is hostile and continues to be dominated by the state-owned National Electricity Corporation, limiting the opportunity for investment. Losses from the system are...