Syria
In-depth country-focused analysis on Syria's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Syria's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Syria, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Syria's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Syria before your competitors.

Country Risk

Syria Country Risk

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Core Views

  • The ongoing civil war in Syria is having severe repercussions on the Lebanese economy. Lebanon's medium-term growth trajectory will settle well below pre-crisis levels due to a lack of investment in transportation and energy infrastructure.

  • Despite renewed fears over the economy's gaping external asymmetries, a loyal depositor base in the domestic banking sector, combined with a massive arsenal of foreign exchange reserves, should help bolster underlying stability through what will turn out as a prolonged period of political volatility. This will minimize the potential for an unexpected devaluation of the pound in 2015.

Major Forecast Revisions

  • We forecast real GDP in Lebanon to expand by 2.4% in 2015, from our previous forecast of 2.3%. Elevated political instability...

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Syria Industry Coverage (2)

Autos

Syria Autos

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Heightened risk from the situation in Syria, coupled with a weak economic outlook, will continue to dampen autos demand in the Levant region. Of the three countries covered in this report, it is the smallest market (Jordan) that has the strongest near-term growth potential In 2014, BMI is targeting 5.8% growth in new vehicle sales rising to 6.7% and 6.8% growth across 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Backing up our cautiously optimistic outlook on the evolution of new vehicle sales in Jordan is our Country Risk team's belief that economic activity will strengthen from 2015 onward, due to robust public investment and gradual improvements in domestic demand. BMI forecasts real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.3% in 2014 and 4.1% in 2015, compared to an annual average of only 2.6% between 2010 and 2013.

Continued progress on public...

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Defence & Security

Syria Defence & Security

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Information regarding the size of Syria's annual defence budget is difficult to locate, since the country erupted into civil war in 2011. It is, however, possible to provide an accurate estimate of the size of the country's annual defence budget. For example, in 2014, we expect Syria's defence budget to reach USD3bn. For the remainder of the forecast period, up to and including 2018, we expect Syria to spend an average of USD4.9bn on defence. We predict Syria's defence spending to reach USD5.7bn by 2018.

Estimating the current size of Syria's armed forces is almost impossible given the civil war in which the country is in the grip of. This conflict has seen the country's armed forces pitted against a significant number of rebel organisations. Accurate figures regarding the current size of the armed forces are almost impossible to produce, given that the armed forces have suffered significant casualties during the hostilities, and also because...

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