Our comprehensive assessment of Trinidad & Tobago's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Trinidad & Tobago, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Trinidad & Tobago's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Trinidad & Tobago before your competitors.
Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk
We maintain our forecast for real GDP growth in Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) to accelerate to 2.6% in 2014 and 3.0% in 2015, up from 1.6% growth in 2013.Â We expect recent tax reforms will incentivise greater investment into the twin islands' key energy sector, while low interest rates will continue to spur growth in consumer lending, bolstering private consumption.
Elevated public spending in advance of national elections in May 2015 will drive a widening of T&T's budget deficit in 2014. Beginning in H215, stronger revenues on the back of accelerating real GDP growth will lead the shortfall to begin to narrow.
T&T's current account balance will remain in surplus in the coming years, driven by improving export performance in the energy sector. Recent tax reform will also continue to encourage an uptick in private...
Trinidad & Tobago Industry Coverage (5)
Food & Drink
Trinidad & Tobago Food & Drink
Though signs of growth are beginning to return to Caribbean states, many economies within the region continue to feel the spill-over effects of the 2009 financial crisis, which strongly shook the region's key industries of tourism and finance. Though the tourism industry is slowly regaining momentum in the region, we believe that it will take some time for pre-financial crisis growth. Furthermore, many regional economies continue to be heavily indebted which limits general investment. With this in mind, we forecast relatively slow food consumption growth in a majority of the Caribbean markets. Despite these difficulties, some markets, most notably Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, are expected to outperform over the forecast period.
Headline Industry DataÂ
Forecast 2014 food consumption growth (local currency):
Trinidad & Tobago Insurance
BMI View: As in previous annual reports, we think that it is still fair and reasonable to describe the Caribbean as something of a backwater in terms of the insurance sectors of the various countries. A comparison with nearby markets in Latin America indicates that the Caribbean markets are small and not particularly rapidly growing.
In all five countries that we consider - Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, Bahamas, Dominican Republic and Barbados - a lacklustre economic environment has contained the growth of premiums and - in the life segments especially - boosted lapse rates. This has happened at a time that low interest rates and the restructuring of Jamaica's government debt have reduced investment income. Nevertheless, the major players are being proactive. As of late 2013, Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL) has introduced a new and unified brand for the entire region,...
Oil & Gas
Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas
Recent upstream discoveries and the start of new fields underpin our relatively optimistic view for the oil and gas sector in Trinidad & Tobago. However we expect gains in output to slow from the latter half of the decade, with particular downside risk to liquids production. T&T's success in securing new markets in the region and in Asia for its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have minimised the impact of declining demand in the US, but the market continues to face risks from as it adjusts to new dynamics in the global gas market. Â
Trinidad & Tobago Telecommunications
BMI View: Â Investment opportunities are emerging all over the Caribbean, with many markets drawing attention from potential new players. In the Bahamas, BTC is under threat from new player from the end of its monopoly licence and is keen to enter the underdeveloped Haitian telecoms sector to offset the new competitive threat. Four players including Cable & Wireless Communications , Star Mobile Caribbean , Columbus Communications and Suriname's state-owned Telesur have all shown interest in acquiring a licence in Trinidad & Tobago after the regulator solicited bids during the auction of new spectrum. We've also highlighted Cuba as a market of to watch, as there are signs...
Trinidad & Tobago Tourism
BMI View: The Caribbean region is returning to sustained growth, with all countries expecting tourist arrivals to increase Â in 2014 and 2015 . However, this is expected to remain below pre-2007 trend growth, with regional arrivals now averaging about 3.0% annual growth. Nonetheless, we expect that improving growth prospects will encourage greater investment in the region, particularly in the hotel sector.
Our tourism report for the Caribbean considers the impact of ongoing global economic uncertainty on the Caribbean tourism industry and how the region's fiscal issues are affecting its tourism arrivals. Following the decline of the financial services industry after the economic downturn hit in 2007, tourism has increased in...