Turkmenistan
In-depth country-focused analysis on Turkmenistan's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Turkmenistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Turkmenistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Turkmenistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan before your competitors.

Country Risk

Turkmenistan Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • Kazakhstan will not face the Russian annexation of regions heavily populated by ethnic Russians as occurred in the Ukrainian region of Crimea in early 2014. While northern Kazakhstan does have a high proportion of ethnic Russians, any aggressive action by Russia would spark backlash from rising regional power China, and put on hold any expansion of the Eurasian Economic Union.

  • Kyrgyzstan's reliance on gold exports and workers' remittances from Russia will mean the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks in the years ahead. In 2014 and 2015 the drought in northern Kyrgyzstan combined with increased demand from Russia for Kyrgyz agricultural imports will see food price inflation rise, subduing private consumption growth.

  • Despite an increase in violence along Turkmenistan's Afghan border, and more...

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Turkmenistan Industry Coverage (3)

Defence & Security

Turkmenistan Defence & Security

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BMI View:   At present, Kazakhstan and the other four Central Asia countries, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan   have limited defence budgets, yet numerous requirements. While BMI expects these budgets to increase incrementally over the coming years, BMI also expects the budgetary and underdevelopment challenges to limit those increases considerably.   These countries face numerous internal and external security challenges , including border disputes, criminality, and domestic and transnational terrorism.

BMI expects Kazakhstan's defence spending to have reached USD2.4bn by the end of 2014 and USD2.6bn by the end...

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Oil & Gas

Turkmenistan Oil & Gas

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BMI View:   Turkmenistan's growing gas reserves have the country's energy profile on a positive trajectory, as reflected by our forecasts for strong growth in gas production over the coming years. O ur forecast for gas production to reach 108.8bcm per annum by 2018 implies an average growth rate of 7.4% per annum. The country's rising potential is supporting a significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, which is slated to provide approximately 40% of China's gas imports by 2020. 

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2012-2018)
  2012e ...

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Telecommunications

Turkmenistan Telecommunications

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BMI View: Uzbekistan became the fifth and final Central Asian market to receive 4G LTE this quarter, as Beeline ( VimpelCom ) commercially launched the service in September 2014 . While it represents an important development for the region, we are largely bearish on the technology's short-term future , as the prohibitive cost will keep it out of reach of most subscribers, while 3G remains underdeveloped. Internet costs are some of the highest in the world, due to the landlocked nature of the region and government motivations to censor content. While t here is strong potential in the Central Asia telecoms industry, 4G will not see a significant uptake over our five...

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