Yemen
In-depth country-focused analysis on Yemen's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Yemen's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Yemen, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Yemen's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Yemen before your competitors.

Country Risk

Yemen Country Risk

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Core Views

  • We expect the formation of a fragile federalised state in Yemen, and the political situation will remain highly unstable over the coming decade. While not our core view, we flag significant risks of a return to civil war and a de-facto break-up of the state. 

  • The economic outlook is uninspiring, with growth remaining sluggish over the 2014-18 period. Our core scenario sees business activity continuing to be negatively impacted by civil unrest, while persistent attacks on the country's hydrocarbon infrastructure will weigh on exports.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Any further disruption by southern-based Islamists to oil or gas exports would weigh heavily on the external position. Yemen's current account dynamics remain precarious; with minimal inflows of capital on the...

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Yemen Industry Coverage (2)

Defence & Security

Yemen Defence & Security

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Yemen is suffering from ongoing political instability, armed insurgencies and both criminal and jihadi activities within its borders. Although some progress has recently been achieved in Yemen's National Reconciliation Conference, very significant hurdles remain, including the desire of many in the South to form an independent state. We believe that a general election, scheduled to take place in February 2014, will not be held until Q214 at the earliest. Overall, the future of Yemen is of great importance for the Middle East. Yemen's position next to Saudi Arabia means the kingdom is greatly concerned with instability spreading to its own territory. In addition, Yemen has emerged as a safe haven for al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which has masterminded several failed terror attacks against the West. Furthermore, as Yemen borders the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, any chaos in the country could boost piracy in these waters, which has already surged as a result of...

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Infrastructure

Yemen Infrastructure

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BMI View: Yemen's construction sector continues to post only modest growth despite significant upside potential . Security risks , combined with political uncertainty, have prevented much needed investment. We predict real industry growth of 3.8% in 2014 and an average of 2.1% over the forecast period until 2023 .

Key developments in the sector:

  • Indian power equipment manufacturer Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Ministry of Electricity and Energy of Yemen for setting up solar photovoltaic (PV) based power plants across the country. The MoU was signed by BHEL Chairman and...

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